Accurate forecasting of developments of agricultural markets has a huge potential due to the seasonal production. During my Ph.D. studies, I researched prediction markets as a new tool to forecast. Let me explain the critical difference to polls based on the election example. Prediction markets ask you about your opinion about the overall outcome and not what you will vote as a poll does. On top, you have to cover your opinion with money. You can think of it as a stock market for information. I achieved promising results and better forecast accuracy against the existing tools in use for agricultural, political, and corporate needs. A downside is the related regulatory issues as these markets are also similar to betting odds.
If you want to learn more than drop me a line!
